What kind of growth does the BS predict for Slovenia?
After the economic forecasts for Slovenia were published by the government Umar, the European Commission, the International Monetary Fund and the Chamber of Commerce and Industry – the Bank of Slovenia also published them on June 15, 2022.

  • For the year 2022, the Bank of Slovenia is now forecasting 5.8% GDP growth (in December last year they thought that the growth would be 4%, and in June last year it would be 4.8%).
  • For the year 2023, the Bank of Slovenia is forecasting 2.4% GDP growth (in December last year it was thought to be 3.3%, and in June last year it was 3.1%).
  • For the year 2024, the Bank of Slovenia is currently forecasting 2.5% GDP growth (in December last year, when the Bank of Slovenia first published a forecast for this year, they thought that Slovenia’s GDP would grow by 2.6%).

Inflation will be high – especially this year, but also next year
However we turn the forecasts, and they predict very high inflation for this year and next year as well. According to the baseline scenario, the Bank of Slovenia envisages 9% inflation for Slovenia this year, and as much as 9.8% in the negative scenario.

According to the Bank of Slovenia, the main factor in this year’s inflation will remain energy prices, but they expect that price growth will be increasingly broad-based, due to the fact that high energy prices will be transferred to other price groups.

At the same time, the Bank of Slovenia expects more pronounced domestic price pressures, with strong economic activity in mind, higher labour costs and the growing transition of current inflation to long-term inflation expectations.

According to the baseline scenario, the Bank of Slovenia predicts that Slovenian inflation will be 9% this year. According to them, inflation will reach 9.3% for food, 30.2% for energy, 5.1% for other goods and 4.4% for services. The so-called core inflation (which does not take into account food and energy prices) will also be increased, as the Bank of Slovenia believes that it will amount to 4.7% this year.

 

Source: Finance. The complete article in Slovene can be read here.